He had been selling lab-grown diamonds since 2019, when the margin was healthy and the product was new enough to be exciting. By 2023, he was still selling them, but the margin had compressed so severely that the volume he needed to sustain his business had tripled. The retail price of a standard 1-carat G VS1 lab-grown had gone from approximately $2,800 in 2019 to approximately $500 in early 2024. The price of the natural equivalent had barely moved. His customers had not changed: they still wanted a large, beautiful diamond at a reasonable price. What had changed was the economics of his business, and the economics of every other lab-grown retailer globally. Some of them had already closed. He was still open, barely, because he had moved to higher volumes and thinner margins. The companies that were winning were the ones that had automated their production and were willing to accept commodity economics. For them, he said, this is exactly what it is supposed to look like. -- Illustrative scene based on documented price trends in the lab-grown diamond market. The price collapse trajectory for CVD lab-grown diamonds from 2019 to 2024 is documented in Rapaport Lab-Grown Diamond Price Reports (rapaport.com) and industry analyst reports including the Bain Global Diamond Industry Report 2023.
Quick answer The global lab-grown diamond market grew from near zero in 2015 to approximately 15 to 20 percent of total diamond jewellery units sold by 2023, primarily in the US engagement ring segment. Prices for commercial lab-grown grades fell approximately 70 to 85 percent between 2019 and 2024, driven by Chinese CVD producers scaling production aggressively. The market is bifurcating: volume continues to grow as prices fall, but retail value growth has stalled as the per-unit price decline outpaces volume gains. The outlook for lab-grown prices is continued downward pressure toward production cost, which is approximately $200 to $400 per carat for standard commercial grades as of 2024 and falling.

The lab-grown market in context

Lab-grown diamonds are chemically and physically identical to natural diamonds, produced by either HPHT (high pressure, high temperature) or CVD (chemical vapour deposition) methods in industrial facilities rather than extracted from geological deposits. They have been commercially available for gem-quality production since approximately the 2000s, but remained a small fraction of the market until approximately 2018 to 2020, when Chinese CVD producers scaled capacity dramatically.

The lab-grown market's growth has been concentrated in specific segments. In the US, the primary growth has been in the engagement ring category, where price-conscious consumers have substituted lab-grown for natural. In Europe and Asia, adoption has been slower, with the US market accounting for a disproportionate share of global lab-grown diamond sales. India's lab-grown consumer adoption has been modest in the bridal segment but growing in fashion jewellery.

The total lab-grown polished diamond market was estimated at approximately $12 to $15 billion at retail in 2023, with most of that in the US. This compares to the natural diamond retail market of approximately $75 to $80 billion. The lab-grown share by value is approximately 15 to 18 percent of the combined market, but by unit count is much higher because lab-grown stones are priced so much lower than naturals.

The CVD production boom

CVD (chemical vapour deposition) is the technology that transformed the lab-grown diamond market from a niche to a disruption. CVD grows diamond crystals by depositing carbon atoms from a methane gas plasma onto a diamond seed substrate in a vacuum chamber. The process operates at moderate pressures (below atmospheric in some configurations), which makes the equipment less capital-intensive than the massive HPHT presses used for earlier industrial diamond production.

CVD reactor technology matured through the 2000s and 2010s, primarily through industrial and scientific diamond applications. By approximately 2016 to 2018, the cost of CVD growth had declined to the point where gem-quality production at commercial scale was economically viable. The key enabler was the reduction in cost per carat of growth from approximately $4,000 to $6,000 per carat in the early 2010s to approximately $300 to $600 per carat by 2020 and continuing to decline. Source: Paul Zimnisky Global Diamond Industry Analyses (paulzimnisky.com); industry analyst reports.

The CVD boom was driven primarily by Chinese producers in Henan, Shandong, and other provinces who invested aggressively in CVD reactor capacity from approximately 2018 onward. China had existing industrial HPHT diamond production infrastructure (China is the world's largest industrial diamond producer, supplying abrasives and cutting tools) and repurposed or expanded facilities for gem-grade CVD production. The combination of lower labour costs, government support for manufacturing scale-up, and rapidly improving reactor technology created a production surge that the market could not absorb at the prices that had prevailed before the expansion.

Chinese producers and market dynamics

The dominant force in lab-grown diamond supply is Chinese CVD production. By 2023, China accounted for an estimated 60 to 70 percent of global CVD lab-grown diamond production by volume, with India and the US accounting for most of the remainder. Exact figures are not publicly available at the company level but the Chinese share is consistently cited in industry analyst reports as the primary driver of the supply expansion.

Chinese lab-grown diamond producers are not well-known internationally because they typically sell through intermediaries and trading companies rather than directly to Western retailers. The supply chain for Chinese lab-grown runs from Henan or Shandong producers to traders in Surat (where Indian factories cut and polish the rough) and then to US and other Western retailers. The opaque nature of the Chinese production side makes accurate production statistics difficult, but the price evidence, a near-continuous decline from 2020 onward, is consistent with a significant supply overhang driven by Chinese capacity expansion.

Several Indian companies have also entered CVD production, building on India's existing diamond processing expertise. Companies including Greenlab Diamonds, IIa Technologies, and various Surat-based firms have lab-grown production facilities. Indian production tends to focus on higher-quality CVD rough with better colour and clarity control than some commodity Chinese production, targeting the premium segment of the lab-grown market.

Western lab-grown producers, primarily US companies like Diamond Foundry (backed by Leonardo DiCaprio and others), Washington Diamonds, and the De Beers' Element Six/Lightbox operation, have focused on premium branding and specific applications (scientific, industrial, high-end jewellery) rather than competing on commodity volume with Chinese production.

Price collapse: the mechanics

The lab-grown diamond price collapse from 2019 to 2024 is one of the most dramatic price movements in any consumer goods category in recent history. Understanding why it happened is essential for anyone considering lab-grown diamonds as a purchase or investment.

The mechanism is straightforward manufactured goods economics. Unlike natural diamonds, whose supply is constrained by geological availability, mine development timelines, and capital-intensive extraction, lab-grown diamonds have supply constrained only by manufacturing economics. When the profitability of lab-grown diamond production is high, producers invest in more capacity. More capacity means more supply. More supply, without equivalent demand growth, means lower prices. Lower prices reduce margins, slow new investment, and eventually stabilise supply, at which point prices stabilise near the cost of production.

This is exactly what happened. Lab-grown diamond prices were high in 2018 to 2020 (still 20 to 40 percent below naturals but profitable for producers). High prices attracted massive investment in Chinese CVD capacity. That capacity came online in 2020 to 2022, flooding the market with supply. Prices collapsed approximately 70 to 80 percent from 2020 to 2024. At the lower prices, marginal producers began to exit or reduce investment. Production growth slowed. Prices began to stabilise, though at a level approximately 80 to 85 percent below natural equivalents.

The manufactured goods price trajectory: what it means for buyers
Lab-grown diamonds follow the price trajectory of manufactured products: prices decline over time as production scales and becomes more efficient. This is not unusual; it is what happens with computers, solar panels, and LED lighting. For buyers who want a diamond aesthetic at the lowest possible price right now, lab-grown is the rational choice. For buyers who want to hold value over time, lab-grown is not appropriate. A lab-grown stone purchased in 2021 at what seemed like a bargain is worth approximately 60 to 70 percent less in replacement cost by 2024 and will likely be worth less still in 2028.

Who buys lab-grown diamonds and why

Lab-grown diamond buyers in the US (the largest market) fall into several distinct segments with different motivations.

The price-motivated buyer wants the largest, best-quality diamond possible within a fixed budget. For this buyer, a 2-carat G VS1 lab-grown at $1,200 is objectively better value than a 0.90-carat G VS1 natural at $4,000. The stone looks identical, is graded identically, and the price difference is real and significant. This is the largest and most price-sensitive segment.

The ethics-motivated buyer specifically avoids natural diamonds because of concerns about mining's environmental impact, labour practices, or the conflict diamond history. Lab-grown has a much lower environmental footprint per carat on some metrics (no land disturbance, no community displacement) though the energy consumption of CVD reactors is significant and the environmental footprint depends heavily on the energy source. For buyers motivated primarily by ethical concerns, lab-grown is genuinely more aligned with their values for some environmental dimensions.

The fashion buyer uses lab-grown specifically for fashion and everyday jewellery, where the lower price point makes larger, more frequent purchases practical. A working woman who wants a different diamond necklace for different occasions but does not want to spend ₹5 lakh per piece is a natural lab-grown fashion buyer.

The informed buyer who understands both options fully and makes a deliberate choice remains a smaller segment. Many lab-grown purchases, particularly in the US, are made by buyers who do not fully understand the price trajectory implications or who have not compared the long-term holding value of lab-grown versus natural.

Retail market for lab-grown

The lab-grown retail market has consolidated considerably since the boom period of 2020 to 2022. Several dedicated lab-grown retailers that launched during the high-price period have either closed or considerably contracted as margins compressed.

The surviving successful models are either: high-volume, low-margin operations that compete primarily on price, typically online-first; or premium-positioned brands that use lab-grown as a value proposition within a branded aesthetic, avoiding pure price competition. Brilliant Earth (US, publicly listed) has maintained a premium positioning combining ethical sourcing narrative with lab-grown and natural options. Clean Origin (US), With Clarity, and Ritani are examples of online-first lab-grown retailers that have adapted to the lower-margin environment through volume.

Traditional natural diamond retailers including Kay Jewellers (Signet Jewelers), Zales, and Jared all introduced lab-grown lines by 2022, normalising the category within mainstream retail. This mainstream adoption accelerated consumer awareness but also compressed margins further as traditional retailers applied their standard promotional pricing tactics to lab-grown.

In India, CaratLane and BlueStone both offer lab-grown collections. The positioning is primarily fashion jewellery and everyday wear rather than bridal, reflecting the cultural resistance to lab-grown in the Indian wedding market.

Natural vs lab-grown: the positioning battle

The diamond industry's strategic response to lab-grown has been to sharpen the narrative distinction between natural and manufactured diamonds. The Natural Diamond Council (NDC), backed by De Beers, ALROSA (prior to sanctions), and other mining companies, has invested in campaigns positioning natural diamonds as rare, meaningful, and irreplaceable.

The positioning strategy rests on three pillars: geological rarity (natural diamonds form over billions of years; lab-grown are made in weeks), meaning (a natural diamond's age and origin carry narrative meaning that a manufactured stone cannot replicate), and value retention (natural diamonds hold value; lab-grown depreciate). All three are factually defensible, though the industry's challenge is that most consumers do not discover the third pillar until after purchase.

The lab-grown industry's counter-narrative emphasises physical identity (the stones are identical chemically and optically), ethical advantages (lower environmental footprint, no mining), and price (more diamond for the money). These arguments are also factually defensible, and the price argument is particularly powerful for cost-constrained buyers.

The market has bifurcated more clearly than originally expected. Consumers who specifically want the largest diamond for the lowest price are choosing lab-grown. Consumers who specifically value the natural origin, the geological story, and the long-term value retention are choosing natural. The contested middle, buyers who were not strongly motivated by either consideration and might have been swayed by marketing, is the segment both sides are fighting for.

India as a lab-grown producer

India has become the world's primary cutting and polishing centre for lab-grown diamonds, as it is for natural diamonds. Surat's cutting industry has adapted its facilities and expertise to process lab-grown rough from both Chinese and Indian producers.

India is also growing as a lab-grown rough producer. The GJEPC has actively supported the development of India's lab-grown rough production, and the government has supported the sector with export promotion and technology policies. Indian CVD producers are generally positioning in the premium quality segment of the market rather than competing directly on volume and price with Chinese producers.

The domestic Indian consumption of lab-grown diamonds is modest relative to production. India cuts and polishes far more lab-grown diamonds than Indian consumers buy, exporting the surplus primarily to the US, Europe, and the Gulf. The domestic market resistance to lab-grown in the bridal segment is the primary constraint on domestic consumption growth.

Lab-grown market outlook

The medium-term outlook for the lab-grown diamond market is one of volume growth at declining prices. The price floor is production cost, which is declining as CVD technology improves and scale increases. By 2028, some analysts project production cost for standard commercial-grade CVD diamonds will reach approximately $50 to $150 per carat, at which point retail prices will have declined further from 2024 levels.

At very low prices, the total addressable market for diamond jewellery expands: consumers who could never afford natural diamonds at any size can afford meaningful lab-grown jewellery. This market expansion at the lower price point is the lab-grown industry's growth narrative for the late 2020s. Whether volume growth at very low prices generates sufficient revenue to sustain the retail and production ecosystem is the key uncertainty.

For natural diamond producers, the lab-grown trajectory is generally favourable for differentiation but creates complexity for mid-market natural diamond pricing. The consumer who is willing to pay ₹50,000 for a 0.50-carat natural diamond when the lab-grown equivalent costs ₹8,000 must be specifically motivated to do so, which requires the natural diamond narrative to be compelling and consistently communicated.

Sources and data integrity note

Lab-grown diamond price trends and production cost data: Paul Zimnisky Global Diamond Industry Analysis (paulzimnisky.com); Rapaport Lab-Grown Diamond Price Reports (rapaport.com); Bain and Company Global Diamond Industry Report 2023.

Chinese production share estimates: industry analyst consensus from multiple sources including Zimnisky, Rapaport, and IDEX market intelligence. Exact figures are not publicly disclosed by Chinese producers.

De Beers Lightbox pricing: Lightbox Jewelry official documentation. Brilliant Earth public filings as a listed company (SEC filings, brilliantearth.com).

Frequently asked questions

Will lab-grown diamond prices keep falling?

The trajectory strongly suggests continued price decline, though at a slower rate than the 2020 to 2023 collapse. The floor for lab-grown diamond prices is production cost, which is itself declining as CVD technology improves. When retail prices approach production cost plus a minimal margin, further production investment becomes unattractive and supply growth slows. The market will stabilise at a lower price level than today, but the stabilisation point has not yet been reached as of mid-2026. Buyers who want the best value at any given moment should buy lab-grown now rather than waiting, as prices are unlikely to spike back up. Buyers who care about long-term holding value should not buy lab-grown regardless of when they buy.

Why did Chinese producers flood the market?

The answer is standard manufactured goods economics. When a product is profitable, producers invest in capacity. CVD lab-grown diamonds were highly profitable in 2018 to 2020 when they sold at modest discounts to naturals. Chinese manufacturers with existing industrial diamond production infrastructure, access to capital, and lower labour costs saw the profit opportunity and invested aggressively in CVD reactor capacity. The production came online and exceeded demand growth, causing prices to fall. This is not a conspiracy or a strategy to harm the diamond market: it is exactly what rational manufacturers do when a product is profitable. The same dynamic happened with solar panels, LED lights, and LCD screens. Lab-grown diamonds are experiencing the manufactured goods S-curve, just much faster than many participants expected.

Is a lab-grown diamond GIA certified?

Yes. GIA issues grading reports for lab-grown diamonds, grading them on the same cut, colour, clarity, and carat weight criteria applied to natural diamonds. The GIA report for a lab-grown diamond states "Laboratory-Grown Diamond" explicitly and uses slightly different terminology on some characteristics (fluorescence notation differs slightly). IGI also certifies lab-grown diamonds. From a grading accuracy standpoint, a GIA or IGI certificate for a lab-grown diamond provides the same quality assurance as for a natural diamond. The certificate does not change the holding value discussion: a GIA-certified lab-grown will still decline in value over time; the certification ensures you know exactly what quality you are buying.

Is it better to buy a 2-carat lab-grown or a 1-carat natural for a comparable budget?

This depends entirely on what you value. If you value visual impact, the 2-carat lab-grown is clearly better: larger face-up area, more sparkle, and visually impressive. If you value long-term holding value, the 1-carat natural is clearly better: it will be worth a similar or greater fraction of its original cost in a decade; the lab-grown will be worth much less. If you value the geological story and meaning of the stone, the natural is better. If you do not care about any of these differences and simply want the most impressive ring at the lowest price, the lab-grown is better. This is genuinely a personal values decision with no objectively correct answer.

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